[喜鵲影片] 懷才不遇？華而不實？—— 試論祖連頓在紐卡素遇入球荒之因
「知人善任，先帝帳下，魏延成棟樑；抑才貶能，孔明軍中，文長變廢將。」如果大家有追港漫，聽過陳某的《不是人》，那這句就是陳某在《不是人——最後的棟樑》中為魏延下的注腳。的確，就三國而言，許多三國迷最扼腕惋惜的，莫非就是諸葛亮死後，魏延也死於內亂，令人才本來就不多的蜀國痛失大將。不過，魏延本來就是一具爭議的人物：有人認為他懷才不遇，在諸葛亮麾下處處受肘，鬱鬱不得志；亦有人認為魏延華而不實，他早於荊南四郡時期就來投蜀國，而劉備亦早早重用魏延，但從後來來看，魏延雖為大將，但亦非那種以一人之力就足以扭轉蜀國困局的帥才，故後來死於內亂固然可惜，但亦非如後人所說般蜀國自毀長城。魏延的一生，就是這麼具爭議，喜歡他的人會認為他懷才不遇，討厭他的人會認為他華而不實，滿口大話。碰巧，目前紐卡素陣中，似乎也有這一號人物：他也是躊躇滿志來投，但在伯樂難遇的困境下，目前的他在紐卡素正鬱鬱不得志。有人認為他是過譽之人，亦有人認為他是淺水困蛟龍，但不論如何，其身陷入球荒卻是不爭的事實，那他是誰？他就是紐卡素今夏的標王——祖連頓(Joelinton)。
早前Tifo Football為祖連頓製作了一條短片，嘗試解釋祖連頓在紐卡素遇入球荒的原因。為方便討論，我特意按其內容打下原文及譯文，以供大家討論：
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZXMch9Fi7Y以4000萬鎊來投，意在取代朗當(Salomón Rondón)在紐卡素前場攻城拔寨的巴西前鋒祖連頓，發現自己在紐卡素的日子愈見不如意。29場英超過後，他只能為紐卡素攻入1球，以及交出2次助攻。朗當是那種制空力強，身材健碩，完美契合於簡單直接及反撃為主的踢法；祖連頓則不同，但如果布魯士(Steve Bruce)可以調整他對祖連頓的用法，他絕對可以喚醒出最好的祖連頓，而祖連頓亦可以真正地成為紐卡素的鋒線尖刀。
在前賀芬咸總教練拿高士文(Julian Nagelsmann)麾下，祖連頓主要是伙拍卡拉馬歷(Andrej Kramaric)或貝科迪爾(Ishak Belfodil)其中一人擔任雙箭頭。除此以外，他又會在鑽石型中場陣式時扮演進攻中場的角色，而在433陣式時，他又會出任翼鋒一職。不過上述兩個角色，祖連頓在拿高士文帳下也是偶一為之，並不常見，而且這通常只會在拿高士文為反撃對手特定的戰術或是尋求製造特定機會等情況下才會出現。因此，即使祖連頓有在邊路或”In The Hole”[註1]位置踢球的經驗，這背後也是出於非常特殊的原因，而球隊和隊友亦會因此而作出一定的調整。
在賀芬咸，祖連頓的接球、迷惑對手、創造空間以及運球能力，都使他更像是一個進攻泉源，多於是一個「士哥拿」。當祖連頓在場時，如果給他配置一名前鋒，一名積極跑動的中場，再加上配上一對高效率的閘衛，如尼高舒侯斯(Nico Schuiz)和卡達拉碧克(Pavel Kaderabek)時，他就會在前線稍為墮後，然後一是轉身帶球上前場，一是在脫離固有進攻戰術，為隊友拉空位，創造空間前選擇回傳、前傳或長傳。在有隊友為他創造足夠的進攻空間下，祖連頓可以在無需運球的情況下就one-two，亦可以迫使對方守衛被迫拉出來和他一對一。值得留意的是，這點祖連頓與另一位由賀芬咸出品的前鋒羅拔圖費明奴(Roberto Firmino)一樣，兩者都是聰明而非常高效率的前場施壓者(Presser)。在拿高士文的戰術下，賀芬咸習慣於前場就壓迫，而這樣的踢法使得他們經常製造到對手失誤，並以此轉化為迅速的反撃——這種踢法無疑是為祖連頓製造到更多揮灑天份的機會——賀芬咸那極具效率的前場緊迫踢法，就是祖連頓的球場智慧與其隊友努力壓迫雙結合的實證。
相比之下，布魯士執掌的紐卡素則截然不同：在防守端以收縮保護禁區為主，在防守時以最常用的5-4-1陣式來保持防守的緊密。據足球數據網站Wyscout顯示，紐卡素在Passer Per Defensive Action(PPDA)，一項用來計算對方在己方進行壓迫及搶截前，他們會擁有多少空間來傳球的數據統計上，紐卡素的數據為18.4，為全英超最高，而且與第二名的錫菲聯相比，紐卡素的數值足足比他們多了近"5"之多。這代表了紐卡素的防守不單是不壓迫，更甚是主動地乖乖靜止不動。[註2]
5-4-1主要著重在中、低位的阻擋，使球隊在中線的防守緊密而異常堅固。如果將其延伸開，翼鋒往往會與兩閘疊位，而有時中場中的球員也會墮後至Back Line，以確保球隊的低位阻擋部署完整。這樣的陣式使得紐卡素的防守人腳十分充沛。儘管即使這樣部署，紐卡素本賽季迄今為止在29場聯賽中仍失球41球，但無損他們在積分榜上排到第13位。
然而，紐卡素本季的核心問題卻不是防守，而是入球，這亦是祖連頓備受關注的部分原因。經過29場比賽之後，英超今季沒有那支球隊的入球是少於只入了25球的「喜鵲」，即使是榜尾的諾域治，也與紐卡素同樣地攻入25球。不過，造成紐卡素入球稀少的原因，正正在於其苦心經營的5-4-1防守陣式，這個陣式無疑是將祖連頓一個人獨自掉在前場，而更重要的是，它把所有會在祖連頓身旁奔跑、拉空間的隊友都變走了。這使得祖連頓的特長都無從發揮，他本可以為這些隊友創造進攻機會或拉開對手注意力，而如今這些通通因為5-4-1而消失得一乾二淨。取而代之的，是紐卡素用簡單直接的高空長傳來餵波予祖連頓，希望他可以利用身高優勢來保持球權。但是，由於5-4-1的緣故，這代表紐卡素對祖連頓的進攻支援往往不若想像中般近，即使他確保了控球權，也很難支持到後上的隊友來支援的一剎。
今季英超，沒有任何一隊的控球率比布魯士的紐卡素更低，也沒有任何一隊比紐卡素更少在對方前場成功控球。這不單意味著祖連頓被孤立，更代表他使人生畏的前場組織攻勢能力及支援反撃的能力被球隊剝削。作為一位擅長通過墮後來為另一位前鋒隊友創造進攻空間，以及善於在反撃中尋找最佳機會的球員，祖連頓如今在紐卡素居然面臨不知為誰創造進攻空間的窘境。再加上隊友米基爾阿米朗(Miguel Almirón)或辛特麥斯明(Allan Saint-Maximin)目前亦不是那種在比賽中足以持續帶來威脅的球員，誠然，這兩位球員都有引球推進的能力，但從比賽可見，那只是那種由己方較深位置開始跑出來的反撃，而非與祖連頓合作出來的效果。
最終，如果紐卡素想得到一位可以在球場上完全揮灑才華的祖連頓，那他們就需要改變他們目前的踢法：改變保守的防守戰術，令祖連頓得到足夠的支持，製造更多壓迫，充分利用他在這方面的優勢，又或是改變目前的5-4-1陣式，轉而踢雙前鋒——然而這反倒衍生其他問題，如卡路爾(Andy Carroll)長年有傷患問題，武藤嘉紀則幾乎沒有出場機會——像杜韋基爾(Dwight Gayle)這類前鋒，或是像辛特麥斯明那類走位靈巧的球員也是可考慮的人選。在成功借用華倫天奴拉沙路(Valentin Lazaro)及列治(Matt Ritchie)快將復出的情況下，紐卡素將擁有一系列風格不同的邊路中場及翼衛隨時候命，這無疑是為紐卡素轉用更具攻擊性的3-4-1-2陣式提供更充分的理由，也許可以考慮將米基爾阿米朗放在前場中路的位置。不過，這些構想都不太可能發生，因為布魯士發現目前的防守系統，正可使紐卡素與降班漩渦保持距離。結果最終受害的只是祖連頓，他被強迫套進一套不適合他的系統，和勉為其難地擔任一個根本不適合他的角色。在這情況下，幾可肯定他那「高薪低能」的水貨標籤會揮之不去。矛盾的是，方法並不是沒有，而且拿高士文在賀芬咸時已充分展示了如何可以激發出最好的祖連頓，但布魯士的紐卡素就是沒有辦法做到。
註1：In The Hole，即指介乎對方後衛及中場球員間的中路位置。
註2：Passer Per Defensive Action(PPDA)，是一項用來計算對方在己方進行壓迫及搶截前，他們會擁有多少空間來傳球的統計，其數據數字愈高，代表球隊在防守時壓迫及搶截愈少。
案：這短片原刊於武漢肺炎爆發期間，故其所有數據皆截至三月停賽前。如今紐卡素復賽後，進攻大有改善，近四場比賽一共射入8球，而短片中建議紐卡素改善進攻的觀點亦多有獲採用：
- 陣式改變
紐卡素已從停賽前的5-4-1，改用為更具進攻力的4-2-3-1。雖然不是短片建議的3-4-1-2，但似乎4-2-3-1更符合紐卡素現時的人腳。而且進攻亦因陣式之改變而改善不少，復賽後四場英超入8球便是一例證。
- 防守策略
紐卡素在停賽後，防守策略由以往的深蹲被動防守，轉為主動性較高的前場壓迫。除卻對曼城一戰因傷兵問題而轉用5-4-1外，另外三場紐卡素皆有不少壓迫。當中對般尼茅夫一役中更成功利用壓迫制造不少入球。
- 祖連頓位置問題
祖連頓在復賽後已不再擔任正前鋒一職，轉而成為4-2-3-1中，3人前場的左中場，而且效果似乎確比擔任正前鋒時好。紐卡素現時安排祖連頓、辛特麥斯明及米基爾阿米朗三人為前場自由人，近幾場亦多見三人與杜韋基爾之間互相配合。位置的轉換令祖連頓本來擅長的打法得以應用在比賽上，惟其表現仍與賀芬咸時相差不少，將其放於較為邊路亦無可避免地減弱他的能力。
原文可見下文：
Brazilian striker Joelinton has found it hard going to Newcastle United – a £40 million striker, brought in to replace Salmon Rondon, who has so far only registered one goal and two assists in the league. Rondon was an aerially dominant, physically robust striker ideally equipped to play for a direct, counter-attacking side; Joelinton is not the same type of player, but he could be a real asset for Newcastle United if Steve Bruce adapts his approach to get the best from his expensive forward.
At Hoffenheim under their head coach Julian Nagelsmann, Joelinton was predominantly used as part of two-man strike partnership alongside Andrej Kramaric or Ishak Belfodil. He did also play as an attacking midfielder in a midfield diamond formation and as a wide player in a 4-3-3, but these were less usual and a result of Nagelsmann’s predilection for changing tactical set-ups to counter specific threats or exploit specific opportunities. So, even when Joelinton played wide or in the hole, it was for a very specific reason and the team and player had worked on this.
At Hoffenheim, Joelinton’s ability to receive passes to feet, hold off defenders and create space, or dribble, meant that he was a creative threat as much, or more, than a goalscoring one. Playing alongside another striker and with willing runners from midfield and out wide in effective wingbacks Nico Schuiz and Pavel Kaderabek. Joelinton would drop off the front line and then either turn and carry, or play passes back, ahead, or out wide, before peeling off to in turn create space for the next player by running at the defence. His ability one twos coming out of a dribble, or take on an isolated defender, especially where other attackers had created space for him to do so. It’s also worth pointing out that, like another Hoffenheim product, Roberto Firmino, Joelinton was an extremely effective and intelligent presser of the ball. Hoffenheim under Nagelsmann pressed high up the pitch, often winning turnovers and transitioning rapidly into attack – this again afforded space for the Brazilian to run in to – and his intelligence and willingness to work hard along with his fellow attackers saw Hoffenheim develop an extremely effective pressing game.
Newcastle under Steve Bruce are, by contrast, defensively set-up to drop off and maintain a compact shape in their most used formation, the 5-4-1. According to Wyscout, Newcastle’s passer per Defensive Action, a measure of how much the opposition are allowed to pass the ball before some form of pressing or tackle is engaged, is 18.4. the most allowed in the league and almost five higher than the next team, Sheffield United. Newcastle don’t just not press, they actively sit off.
The 5-4-1 is used in a mid and low block, vertically compact and very solid. If stretched wide, a winger drops off to double up with the full back, and sometimes a midfielder also drops into the back line to ensure that the low block stays complete. It makes Newcastle fairly hard to break down; although they have conceded 41 goals in their 29 games so far this season, that’s the 13th best in the league.
Where Newcastle struggle is in scoring, which is part of the reason why Joelinton is under the spotlight. After 29 games, no side has scored fewer goals this season then the Magpies, who have 25, joint with bottom side Norwich City. But this defensive system is one of the reasons why they struggle for goals, as it leaves Joelinton alone up front and, crucially, with no one around him to make the sort of runs that either allow him the space to create something for the runner, or divert defenders and create space for him. Instead, Newcastle go direct and aerially to Joelinton, expecting him to hold up the ball. But with the defensive system meaning that support is deep, it’s hard to get runners to him even when he does secure possession.
No side has had lower average possession in matches this season than Bruce’s Newcastle. And no side has managed to get the ball successfully into the final third as few times. This means that not only is Joelinton isolated, he is deprived of the sort of build-up play and support running that makes him dangerous. A player who thrives by dropping off to make space for another striker, or looks to take the ball to feet before playing it off and making a run himself, has no one to make space for and limited opportunities to bring dangerous runners like Miguel Almiron or Allan Saint-Maximin into the game. Even when these players do get to run with the ball, it’s usually from, a deeper position and not the result of linking with the striker.
Ultimately, if Newcastle are to get the best from, a talented player, they need to change their whole outlook; defend less deep so Joelinton has support, press more to play to one of his strengths, and probably change formation so he is either playing off two strikers – problematic because Andy Carroll has his perennial fitness issues and Yoshinori Muto has also barely played – or alongside either a striker like a Dwight Gayle or a tricky runner who could play as one like Saint-Maximin. In loan signing Valentin Lazaro, and with Matt Ritchie coming back from injury, Newcastle have the kind of wide midfielders or wing-backs who could affect a shift to a more attacking 3-4-1-2, perhaps with Almiron in the hole. But these changes are unlikely as Bruce has found a defensive system that is keeping Newcastle’s head above water. The casualty of this is Joelinton, used in a system and role that does not suit him and ensures he will continue to be seen as an expensive under-achiever, however unfairly, Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim, showed how to get the best from Joelinton – Bruce’s Newcastle do not.
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「知人善任，先帝帳下，魏延成棟樑；抑才貶能，孔明軍中，文長變廢將。」如果大家有追港漫，聽過陳某的《不是人》，那這句就是陳某在《不是人——最後的棟樑》中為魏延下的注腳。的確，就三國而言，許多三國迷最扼腕惋惜的，莫非就是諸葛亮死後，魏延也死於內亂，令人才本來就不多的蜀國痛失大將。不過，魏延本來就是一具爭議的人物：有人認為他懷才不遇，在諸葛亮麾下處處受肘，鬱鬱不得志；亦有人認為魏延華而不實，他早於荊南四郡時期就來投蜀國，而劉備亦早早重用魏延，但從後來來看，魏延雖為大將，但亦非那種以一人之力就足以扭轉蜀國困局的帥才，故後來死於內亂固然可惜，但亦非如後人所說般蜀國自毀長城。魏延的一生，就是這麼具爭議，喜歡他的人會認為他懷才不遇，討厭他的人會認為他華而不實，滿口大話。碰巧，目前紐卡素陣中，似乎也有這一號人物：他也是躊躇滿志來投，但在伯樂難遇的困境下，目前的他在紐卡素正鬱鬱不得志。有人認為他是過譽之人，亦有人認為他是淺水困蛟龍，但不論如何，其身陷入球荒卻是不爭的事實，那他是誰？他就是紐卡素今夏的標王——祖連頓(Joelinton)。
早前Tifo Football為祖連頓製作了一條短片，嘗試解釋祖連頓在紐卡素遇入球荒的原因。為方便討論，我特意按其內容打下原文及譯文，以供大家討論：
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZXMch9Fi7Y以4000萬鎊來投，意在取代朗當(Salomón Rondón)在紐卡素前場攻城拔寨的巴西前鋒祖連頓，發現自己在紐卡素的日子愈見不如意。29場英超過後，他只能為紐卡素攻入1球，以及交出2次助攻。朗當是那種制空力強，身材健碩，完美契合於簡單直接及反撃為主的踢法；祖連頓則不同，但如果布魯士(Steve Bruce)可以調整他對祖連頓的用法，他絕對可以喚醒出最好的祖連頓，而祖連頓亦可以真正地成為紐卡素的鋒線尖刀。
在前賀芬咸總教練拿高士文(Julian Nagelsmann)麾下，祖連頓主要是伙拍卡拉馬歷(Andrej Kramaric)或貝科迪爾(Ishak Belfodil)其中一人擔任雙箭頭。除此以外，他又會在鑽石型中場陣式時扮演進攻中場的角色，而在433陣式時，他又會出任翼鋒一職。不過上述兩個角色，祖連頓在拿高士文帳下也是偶一為之，並不常見，而且這通常只會在拿高士文為反撃對手特定的戰術或是尋求製造特定機會等情況下才會出現。因此，即使祖連頓有在邊路或”In The Hole”[註1]位置踢球的經驗，這背後也是出於非常特殊的原因，而球隊和隊友亦會因此而作出一定的調整。
在賀芬咸，祖連頓的接球、迷惑對手、創造空間以及運球能力，都使他更像是一個進攻泉源，多於是一個「士哥拿」。當祖連頓在場時，如果給他配置一名前鋒，一名積極跑動的中場，再加上配上一對高效率的閘衛，如尼高舒侯斯(Nico Schuiz)和卡達拉碧克(Pavel Kaderabek)時，他就會在前線稍為墮後，然後一是轉身帶球上前場，一是在脫離固有進攻戰術，為隊友拉空位，創造空間前選擇回傳、前傳或長傳。在有隊友為他創造足夠的進攻空間下，祖連頓可以在無需運球的情況下就one-two，亦可以迫使對方守衛被迫拉出來和他一對一。值得留意的是，這點祖連頓與另一位由賀芬咸出品的前鋒羅拔圖費明奴(Roberto Firmino)一樣，兩者都是聰明而非常高效率的前場施壓者(Presser)。在拿高士文的戰術下，賀芬咸習慣於前場就壓迫，而這樣的踢法使得他們經常製造到對手失誤，並以此轉化為迅速的反撃——這種踢法無疑是為祖連頓製造到更多揮灑天份的機會——賀芬咸那極具效率的前場緊迫踢法，就是祖連頓的球場智慧與其隊友努力壓迫雙結合的實證。
相比之下，布魯士執掌的紐卡素則截然不同：在防守端以收縮保護禁區為主，在防守時以最常用的5-4-1陣式來保持防守的緊密。據足球數據網站Wyscout顯示，紐卡素在Passer Per Defensive Action(PPDA)，一項用來計算對方在己方進行壓迫及搶截前，他們會擁有多少空間來傳球的數據統計上，紐卡素的數據為18.4，為全英超最高，而且與第二名的錫菲聯相比，紐卡素的數值足足比他們多了近"5"之多。這代表了紐卡素的防守不單是不壓迫，更甚是主動地乖乖靜止不動。[註2]
5-4-1主要著重在中、低位的阻擋，使球隊在中線的防守緊密而異常堅固。如果將其延伸開，翼鋒往往會與兩閘疊位，而有時中場中的球員也會墮後至Back Line，以確保球隊的低位阻擋部署完整。這樣的陣式使得紐卡素的防守人腳十分充沛。儘管即使這樣部署，紐卡素本賽季迄今為止在29場聯賽中仍失球41球，但無損他們在積分榜上排到第13位。
然而，紐卡素本季的核心問題卻不是防守，而是入球，這亦是祖連頓備受關注的部分原因。經過29場比賽之後，英超今季沒有那支球隊的入球是少於只入了25球的「喜鵲」，即使是榜尾的諾域治，也與紐卡素同樣地攻入25球。不過，造成紐卡素入球稀少的原因，正正在於其苦心經營的5-4-1防守陣式，這個陣式無疑是將祖連頓一個人獨自掉在前場，而更重要的是，它把所有會在祖連頓身旁奔跑、拉空間的隊友都變走了。這使得祖連頓的特長都無從發揮，他本可以為這些隊友創造進攻機會或拉開對手注意力，而如今這些通通因為5-4-1而消失得一乾二淨。取而代之的，是紐卡素用簡單直接的高空長傳來餵波予祖連頓，希望他可以利用身高優勢來保持球權。但是，由於5-4-1的緣故，這代表紐卡素對祖連頓的進攻支援往往不若想像中般近，即使他確保了控球權，也很難支持到後上的隊友來支援的一剎。
今季英超，沒有任何一隊的控球率比布魯士的紐卡素更低，也沒有任何一隊比紐卡素更少在對方前場成功控球。這不單意味著祖連頓被孤立，更代表他使人生畏的前場組織攻勢能力及支援反撃的能力被球隊剝削。作為一位擅長通過墮後來為另一位前鋒隊友創造進攻空間，以及善於在反撃中尋找最佳機會的球員，祖連頓如今在紐卡素居然面臨不知為誰創造進攻空間的窘境。再加上隊友米基爾阿米朗(Miguel Almirón)或辛特麥斯明(Allan Saint-Maximin)目前亦不是那種在比賽中足以持續帶來威脅的球員，誠然，這兩位球員都有引球推進的能力，但從比賽可見，那只是那種由己方較深位置開始跑出來的反撃，而非與祖連頓合作出來的效果。
最終，如果紐卡素想得到一位可以在球場上完全揮灑才華的祖連頓，那他們就需要改變他們目前的踢法：改變保守的防守戰術，令祖連頓得到足夠的支持，製造更多壓迫，充分利用他在這方面的優勢，又或是改變目前的5-4-1陣式，轉而踢雙前鋒——然而這反倒衍生其他問題，如卡路爾(Andy Carroll)長年有傷患問題，武藤嘉紀則幾乎沒有出場機會——像杜韋基爾(Dwight Gayle)這類前鋒，或是像辛特麥斯明那類走位靈巧的球員也是可考慮的人選。在成功借用華倫天奴拉沙路(Valentin Lazaro)及列治(Matt Ritchie)快將復出的情況下，紐卡素將擁有一系列風格不同的邊路中場及翼衛隨時候命，這無疑是為紐卡素轉用更具攻擊性的3-4-1-2陣式提供更充分的理由，也許可以考慮將米基爾阿米朗放在前場中路的位置。不過，這些構想都不太可能發生，因為布魯士發現目前的防守系統，正可使紐卡素與降班漩渦保持距離。結果最終受害的只是祖連頓，他被強迫套進一套不適合他的系統，和勉為其難地擔任一個根本不適合他的角色。在這情況下，幾可肯定他那「高薪低能」的水貨標籤會揮之不去。矛盾的是，方法並不是沒有，而且拿高士文在賀芬咸時已充分展示了如何可以激發出最好的祖連頓，但布魯士的紐卡素就是沒有辦法做到。
註1：In The Hole，即指介乎對方後衛及中場球員間的中路位置。
註2：Passer Per Defensive Action(PPDA)，是一項用來計算對方在己方進行壓迫及搶截前，他們會擁有多少空間來傳球的統計，其數據數字愈高，代表球隊在防守時壓迫及搶截愈少。
案：這短片原刊於武漢肺炎爆發期間，故其所有數據皆截至三月停賽前。如今紐卡素復賽後，進攻大有改善，近四場比賽一共射入8球，而短片中建議紐卡素改善進攻的觀點亦多有獲採用：
- 陣式改變
紐卡素已從停賽前的5-4-1，改用為更具進攻力的4-2-3-1。雖然不是短片建議的3-4-1-2，但似乎4-2-3-1更符合紐卡素現時的人腳。而且進攻亦因陣式之改變而改善不少，復賽後四場英超入8球便是一例證。
- 防守策略
紐卡素在停賽後，防守策略由以往的深蹲被動防守，轉為主動性較高的前場壓迫。除卻對曼城一戰因傷兵問題而轉用5-4-1外，另外三場紐卡素皆有不少壓迫。當中對般尼茅夫一役中更成功利用壓迫制造不少入球。
- 祖連頓位置問題
祖連頓在復賽後已不再擔任正前鋒一職，轉而成為4-2-3-1中，3人前場的左中場，而且效果似乎確比擔任正前鋒時好。紐卡素現時安排祖連頓、辛特麥斯明及米基爾阿米朗三人為前場自由人，近幾場亦多見三人與杜韋基爾之間互相配合。位置的轉換令祖連頓本來擅長的打法得以應用在比賽上，惟其表現仍與賀芬咸時相差不少，將其放於較為邊路亦無可避免地減弱他的能力。
原文可見下文：
Brazilian striker Joelinton has found it hard going to Newcastle United – a £40 million striker, brought in to replace Salmon Rondon, who has so far only registered one goal and two assists in the league. Rondon was an aerially dominant, physically robust striker ideally equipped to play for a direct, counter-attacking side; Joelinton is not the same type of player, but he could be a real asset for Newcastle United if Steve Bruce adapts his approach to get the best from his expensive forward.
At Hoffenheim under their head coach Julian Nagelsmann, Joelinton was predominantly used as part of two-man strike partnership alongside Andrej Kramaric or Ishak Belfodil. He did also play as an attacking midfielder in a midfield diamond formation and as a wide player in a 4-3-3, but these were less usual and a result of Nagelsmann’s predilection for changing tactical set-ups to counter specific threats or exploit specific opportunities. So, even when Joelinton played wide or in the hole, it was for a very specific reason and the team and player had worked on this.
At Hoffenheim, Joelinton’s ability to receive passes to feet, hold off defenders and create space, or dribble, meant that he was a creative threat as much, or more, than a goalscoring one. Playing alongside another striker and with willing runners from midfield and out wide in effective wingbacks Nico Schuiz and Pavel Kaderabek. Joelinton would drop off the front line and then either turn and carry, or play passes back, ahead, or out wide, before peeling off to in turn create space for the next player by running at the defence. His ability one twos coming out of a dribble, or take on an isolated defender, especially where other attackers had created space for him to do so. It’s also worth pointing out that, like another Hoffenheim product, Roberto Firmino, Joelinton was an extremely effective and intelligent presser of the ball. Hoffenheim under Nagelsmann pressed high up the pitch, often winning turnovers and transitioning rapidly into attack – this again afforded space for the Brazilian to run in to – and his intelligence and willingness to work hard along with his fellow attackers saw Hoffenheim develop an extremely effective pressing game.
Newcastle under Steve Bruce are, by contrast, defensively set-up to drop off and maintain a compact shape in their most used formation, the 5-4-1. According to Wyscout, Newcastle’s passer per Defensive Action, a measure of how much the opposition are allowed to pass the ball before some form of pressing or tackle is engaged, is 18.4. the most allowed in the league and almost five higher than the next team, Sheffield United. Newcastle don’t just not press, they actively sit off.
The 5-4-1 is used in a mid and low block, vertically compact and very solid. If stretched wide, a winger drops off to double up with the full back, and sometimes a midfielder also drops into the back line to ensure that the low block stays complete. It makes Newcastle fairly hard to break down; although they have conceded 41 goals in their 29 games so far this season, that’s the 13th best in the league.
Where Newcastle struggle is in scoring, which is part of the reason why Joelinton is under the spotlight. After 29 games, no side has scored fewer goals this season then the Magpies, who have 25, joint with bottom side Norwich City. But this defensive system is one of the reasons why they struggle for goals, as it leaves Joelinton alone up front and, crucially, with no one around him to make the sort of runs that either allow him the space to create something for the runner, or divert defenders and create space for him. Instead, Newcastle go direct and aerially to Joelinton, expecting him to hold up the ball. But with the defensive system meaning that support is deep, it’s hard to get runners to him even when he does secure possession.
No side has had lower average possession in matches this season than Bruce’s Newcastle. And no side has managed to get the ball successfully into the final third as few times. This means that not only is Joelinton isolated, he is deprived of the sort of build-up play and support running that makes him dangerous. A player who thrives by dropping off to make space for another striker, or looks to take the ball to feet before playing it off and making a run himself, has no one to make space for and limited opportunities to bring dangerous runners like Miguel Almiron or Allan Saint-Maximin into the game. Even when these players do get to run with the ball, it’s usually from, a deeper position and not the result of linking with the striker.
Ultimately, if Newcastle are to get the best from, a talented player, they need to change their whole outlook; defend less deep so Joelinton has support, press more to play to one of his strengths, and probably change formation so he is either playing off two strikers – problematic because Andy Carroll has his perennial fitness issues and Yoshinori Muto has also barely played – or alongside either a striker like a Dwight Gayle or a tricky runner who could play as one like Saint-Maximin. In loan signing Valentin Lazaro, and with Matt Ritchie coming back from injury, Newcastle have the kind of wide midfielders or wing-backs who could affect a shift to a more attacking 3-4-1-2, perhaps with Almiron in the hole. But these changes are unlikely as Bruce has found a defensive system that is keeping Newcastle’s head above water. The casualty of this is Joelinton, used in a system and role that does not suit him and ensures he will continue to be seen as an expensive under-achiever, however unfairly, Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim, showed how to get the best from Joelinton – Bruce’s Newcastle do not.
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